Preference Category Predictions
According to Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the U.S. Department of State Visa Control and Reporting Division, EB-2 China processing should advance by three to five weeks per month through 2015, while EB-2 India processing is not expected to advance in 2015 from the retrogressed date of February 15, 2005 announced in the November 2014 Visa Bulletin. The reason EB-2 India is not expected to advance is due to the large number of upgrades by Indian nationals from EB-3 to EB-2, increasing the demand in the EB-2 India preference category.
Oppenheim predicts that EB-3 China processing will see rapid advancement in the beginning of FY 2015, while EB-3 India processing is expected to advance by one to two weeks per month through the year. He expects that EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines processing will remain at 7% of the total annual limit of 140,000 employment-based visas allotted, although each of these categories could retrogress at the end of the FY as demand for the visas increases.
EB-3 China Downgrades
As of the November 2014 Visa Bulletin, EB-3 China processing is 24 days ahead of EB-2 China. Oppenheim suggests that Chinese nationals in EB-2 with priority dates in this 24-day window will file I-140 Petitions for Alien Worker in the EB-3 China category. This is expected to last for two to three months until demand for the EB-3 China category catches up with EB-2 China and the EB-3 China priority date cut-off is adjusted.
Oppenheim predicts that a priority date for EB-5 China may be required for the fist time in 2015 if the annual visa allotment is reached in the FY as it was in 2014. The only reason a priority date cut-off was not established in FY 2014 was because the cap was reached in the last month of the FY. This cut-off could happened as early as May of 2015.